The Part Count section of 217Plus includes a number of tables for device failure rates that are based on the combination of the environment and operating profile of the system. This article provides an overview of the most commonly used reliability prediction standards. If they do, they are likely hurting people and the environment. The MIL-HDBK-217 Reliability Prediction Standard, China’s GJB/z 299 Reliability Prediction Standard. Relyence Corporation has just released the latest version of the[...], To kick off the new year, we are excited to[...], Reliability Prediction analysis is one of the core techniques used[...]. Initially, the Bellcore/Telcordia standard was developed for use in the telecommunications industry. Relyence® is a registered trademark of Relyence Corporation. At this point, further analysis can be done at the system level if more data about the system is available, such as test or field data. Honesty about capabilities. Its revisions and updates are designated with suffix notations similar to MIL-HDBK-217. The Part Stress section leads off the document and includes a number of equations that predict the failure rate for a wide variety of electrical components. By factoring in this information, the 217Plus analysis will provide a more accurate predicted failure rate estimation. Good manufacturing reps will advocate for particular CM’s, but should honest about what those CM’s can/can’t do well. Solder joint reliability is defined as the ability of your product’s solder joints to function under given conditions and for a specified period of time without exceeding acceptable failure levels. Price guarantees are also commonplace. Complex systems and cultural differences in CE can be managed and learned. See how Relyence’s reliability prediction software can help with failure rate calculations – start a free trial today! It isn’t their fault that they don’t understand this concept. Oftentimes, NPRD-2016 and/or EPRD-2014 can be used to include failure rate estimates for devices not modeled in the prediction standards. MIL-HDBK-217’s official name is Military Handbook: Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment. Zone II is the useful life stage and is characterized by a constant failure rate due to random failures. It is up to the analyst to determine if any of this additional data is available and if it is helpful to include in the reliability prediction analysis. Telcordia was developed for commercial applications. This ability to perform design trade-off analysis with metric-based assessments empowers you to make the best decisions for your business. In many cases, Parts Count is used to start a Reliability Prediction analysis. It’s time to get smart about how to manufacture electronics. 10-9. One downside to this plan is that solid social or environmental stewardship standards, while reported, are not always practiced. China’s GJB/z 299 is the most widely used Reliability Prediction standard in the extensive Chinese market. This happens all the time. The latest versions of these databases, NPRD-2016 and EPRD-2014, can be used alongside the prediction standards and work well together. The person you are looking for talks to, visits, or builds with their Asian partners on a weekly basis, for years. MIL-HDBK-217 failure rate predictions are generally more pessimistic than Telcordia and 217Plus reliability predictions. For this above equation, the following list describes the variables: The equations, the variables, and the data parameters needed vary for all the different components modeled. For example, MIL-HDBK-217 and 217Plus both support a broad list of environments, whereas Telcordia supports a smaller set of environments, which does not include military environments such as aircraft and naval. Work by Rebel has won several awards including ‘The Best of CES,’ ‘Best of Forbes,’ Red Dot Awards, and ‘Fetish’ appearances in Wired Magazine. Below we’ve listed about 30 of the broad strokes needed to manufacture a simple CE device. Failure rates obtained from this source for the period 1999–2001 are presented. Parts Count predictions do not require as many data parameters for analysis compared to Part Stress predictions. Reliability Prediction’s historical roots are in the military and defense sector, but over the years have been adapted and broadened for use in a wide range of industries. We believe that in the software world, and in the technology space, we must always be moving ahead. There are many companies who reliably take startups to volume manufacturing. The result is that you have now paid an Asian factory to build your product without a solid relationship - a sure disaster. And this lack of understanding is beginning to show. In a reliability sense, components can be treated as fractions of the product and in most cases links in a chain. A comparison of these most recent failure rate estimates with older results indicates a general improvement in component performance. (Note: Both Avnet and Arrow, two trustworthy American component sales companies, are enticing startups to use their services with discounted BOMs and an initial investment (late 2017). There are several widely accepted Reliability Prediction standards including: Additionally, component databases NPRD (Non-electronic Parts Reliability Data)  and EPRD (Electronic Parts Reliability Data) are often used in conjunction with the Reliability Prediction standards to augment prediction analyses. Another widely used and accepted Reliability Prediction standard is commonly referred to as Telcordia SR-332. By predicting failure rates, you can then make design changes as needed for areas of weakness. How is an entrepreneur supposed to vet the manufacturing rep who says they can take a startup to China? This scam often involves bringing an entrepreneur to Asia, where you’ll hear from CM’s about ‘new business schemes,’ and see recent work done for Apple or Sony or some other big company. It is defined as the frequency with which an engineered system or component fails, expressed in failures per unit of time. While MTBF seems to be more intuitive, it is quite difficult to handle in calculations, because MTBF is not an additive metric. We believe in always creating, always innovating, and always being the best. Essentially, real-world data available can be used to further refine the estimated failure rate values. - Any company/person connected with the sales arm of a CM who isn’t completely upfront about that business relationship. Often, organizations think that they will achieve better quality with AQL sampling plans t… 8-10 cc/min and still be considered an acceptable part based on its use and test specifications. The Part Stress section includes complete details on all the equations and how to assess the variables used in the equations. You scan the database of components and select one that matches, or most closely matches, the device you are modeling. In short, don’t forget your business acumen just because the process is difficult. The American entrepreneur is trained to brush aside the naysayers, take risks, trade human expertise for equity and discover shortcuts that have been overlooked by their slower corporate counterparts. At any rate, the original point of this post was to question what rates of failure are acceptable, and what I find amazing is that there is still an expectation that you can have literally millions of homes built without issue, have a few dozens experience a problem, and it results in this level of rhetoric. Any company or person touting that they’ve ‘been to China a few times’ with one-off projects. It is now used throughout a broad range of industries, including those related to military and defense applications. You need the relationship person, not the brilliant engineer or successful product manager. It is usually denoted by the Greek letter λ (lambda) and is often used in reliability engineering. Quality can not be inspected in after the fact. This means that most BOMs cost roughly the same. Our findings on the percentage of failure have also been validated by CB Insights - thanks guys! We debated whether to list this and decided it was an important insight. Even if an entrepreneur travels to China to meet with their new partner, or lives there for months, he/she doesn’t have the solid relationship necessary to build at volume – it isn’t a cultural norm to develop a working relationship in months. China’s GJB/z 299 is employed almost exclusively in China, or in companies doing business with Chinese companies. Depending what sector, you are manufacturing for, it could be as high as 3 … 1st, I fitted 6 of their 8W filament LED bulbs with 2 years guarantee in my parents house, and 3 have failed within the first year. The downside to the Bootstrap Model is that most of the scams in manufacturing are perpetrated here. If this data is not known, default values are used. This is where the value in what they do is realized, so make sure your rep mentions relationship and has a few stories to back it up. The conventional definition of AQL is completely misleading and totally bunk. As a proxy for the latter, I have used the number of service calls recorded du… - Any American manufacturer who insists they are competitive with Asia in terms of manufacturing costs. At this point, further analysis can be done at the system level if more data about the system is available, such as test or field data. Acceptable Quality Limit (AQL) In performing sampling inspection, QIMA inspectors exclusively apply the ISO 2859 standard and the tables provided by it. Companies who enjoy good Guanxi are secretive and unwilling to help startups with their projects. Of those that didn’t have limitations on time or money, the numbers are still depressing – only three percent of CE startups make it to the shelf, any shelf, with more than 20,000 units. The factors in the equation are various operating, rated, temperature, and environmental conditions of the device in the system. There are two primary sections in the MIL-HDBK-217 standard: the Part Stress section and the Parts Count section. RUN! Intelligent startup teams with manufacturing experience use this model to find a good ‘manufacturing rep’ who will partner the startup with the right CM in Asia. The best tools will even allow you to mix and match standards, provide built-in component libraries, and enable you to view how design changes impact reliability. We call this the ‘Venture Capital (VC) Model.’. Along with the qualities you should look for in a good rep, we are also including some warning signs to be aware of when choosing partners (also good for the VC Model). Forging ahead in the midst of a scam only works with millions of dollars in your pocket and the time to move to Asia for a prolonged period. They declare themselves to be salespeople and speak with all the right buzzwords, and they make promises that seem almost too good to be true. Telcordia Issue 3 is a commonly used standard, while Telcordia SR-332 Issue 4 represents the latest Telcordia Reliability Prediction standard. People are protecting their relationships. Unless you have a contractual requirement to use a specific standard, the selection of the reliability prediction standard should be based on your particular needs related to the design in question. Once, twice, three times isn’t enough. This way of work is called ‘Guanxi’ in China, which is literally translated as ‘relationship’ in English. The choice is based on particular requirements. Good manufacturing reps guarantee their work. Sometimes this is built into the BOM, while other times it is a separate charge. Apple recently spent five years building a relationship with an Asian contract manufacturer (CM) before letting them build the iWatch. These databases glean failure rate information from an array of sources. Universities forced to go Digital. NOTE: If an Asian company offers you a cash investment at good terms, our suggestion is to treat them like any other investor. Internet Sourcing (not a purposeful scam, but with the same results). - Any company who tells you that the factory will do QA to your satisfaction without guaranteeing the work on their own. The third way to manufacture reliably, and if you’re on a budget under $4M, is to choose a ‘manufacturing rep’. In addition, these larger companies don’t have an entrepreneurial passion about products, which we’ve found to be very important for startup founders. After stints with local accelerators and watching dozens of startups go through the process, we think we know why: Entrepreneurs are simply overwhelmed. This document, published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), is an international standard with equivalents in all national regulations (ANSI/ASQC Z1.4, NF06-022, BS 6001, DIN 40080). Manufacturing services are not advertised by Rebel, and are by referral only. A. yes B. no * If rate is not acceptable, what would be an appropriate “high criticality” failure rate, i.e., what would be your definition of “never”? In engineering notation, failure rates are often very low because failure rates are often expressed as failures per million (10 −6), particularly for individual components. However, some reliability prediction software packages do not require you to enter all the data parameters and will use average default values, which enables you to perform a prediction with minimal input. It was originally developed and published for use by the Department of Defense. However, you can use more than one model and analysts do this for complete coverage. Acceptable failure rates depend solely on the industry and product. With money from day one ‘ relationship ’ in English – the selection must be based on real-world... 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